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APAC to lead global battery energy storage market

960 640 Stuart O'Brien

The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is set to lead the global battery energy storage market, accounting for 68% of the global market value through 2026, with China, Japan, India, South Korea and Australia propelling the regional market.

That’s according to GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Battery Energy Storage Market Size, Share and Trends Analysis by Technology, Installed Capacity, Generation, Drivers, Constraints, Key Players and Forecast, 2021-2026’, which reveals that the global market for the battery energy storage is estimated to grow to $10.84bn in 2026, out of which APAC will account for $7.33bn.

Bhavana Sri Pullagura, Senior Power Analyst at GlobalData, said: “Fall in battery technology prices, increasing need for grid stability and resilience of the integration of renewable power in the power market are some major factors that contribute to the growth.”

China, one of the fastest-growing economies, is expected to lead the global battery energy storage market with $4.04bn in 2026. A mammoth target of 1,200 GW of wind and solar capacity will provide considerable growth opportunities to the energy storage market over the forecast period.

China, South Korea, the US, Germany, and the UK will be the major markets on the back of supportive regulations and incentives.

Pullagura added: “The rapid growth in demand for electricity and the wider use of renewable integration will keep the demand for battery energy storage market buoyant in other countries, leading to a significant growth in the market over the forecast period. Grid transformations, improving electrification rates, and electricity provisions for the rapidly growing population will create market opportunities.”

Over the last decade, various new digital and smart technologies have been integrated. Countries have been aggressively promoting the modernization of grids and enhancing the grids’ capability to meet the requirements of the present and future. Additionally, batteries are being deployed to aid smart grids, integrate renewables, create responsive electricity markets, provide ancillary services, and enhance both system resilience and energy self-sufficiency.

Pullagura concluded: “GlobalData believes that encouraging policies and high electricity charges are also nudging the market to renewables and/or storage plus renewables at the end consumer level. As the power sector evolves to accommodate new technologies and adapt to varying market trends, energy storage will play a crucial role in the transition and transformation of the power sector.”

Nuclear ‘should have extended role’ in clean energy mix

1024 682 Stuart O'Brien

With the world looking to consolidate ventures in cleaner and greener electricity sources post-COVID-19, electricity from nuclear sources offer a key option.

The World Nuclear Association in a recent study states the opportunity for governments to invest in nuclear energy, which addresses the COVID-19 crisis and manages issues such as climate change, air pollution and energy crisis.

Somik Das, Senior Power Analyst at GlobalData, said: “Nuclear power plants can maintain grid stability with the ability to regulate plant yield to follow demand and help constrain the impacts of seasonal variances in renewable energy yield. In the current situation, investment in nuclear energy is anticipated to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, increased energy resilience and creation of huge numbers of long-term, high-skilled domestic employment that pay premium compensation.” 

The share of nuclear-based generation in South Korea rose amid the pandemic, whereas in the UK, nuclear played a key role in providing the support to make up the lost production from crippled coal generation during the COVID-19.

In China, electricity production diminished during January-February 2020 by more than 8% year-on-year. Compared to the significant reduction in generation from coal and hydropower, nuclear was more resilient with a mere 2% reduction in China. Even with the pandemic this year, the share of nuclear in electricity generation in the generation mix is anticipated to remain steady in the country as last year. 

The Nuclear Energy Agency in its policy briefs mentioned the COVID-19 recuperation phase as an opportunity for appropriate policy and market frameworks to incentivize investment in fundamental infrastructure that bolsters low-carbon electricity security and economic development. The 108 new planned nuclear reactors and the long-term operation of existing 290 reactors globally can play a key role within the post-COVID-19 economic recovery efforts by boosting economic development and provide stability to the generation mix. 

Das concluded: “The global power industry and governments need to consider and provide a level playing field to the nuclear generation that values reliability and energy security. A harmonized nuclear regulatory environment and a holistic safety paradigm along with RE development will act as a catalyst towards global decarbonization.” 

Image by Markus Distelrath from Pixabay 

Transition to renewables ‘to fuel post-COVID recovery’

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Investment in renewable energy expansion will be an important cog in the wheel towards the post-COVID-19 economic recovery journey.

Expanding the renewables will not only help countries deliver stronger climate action under the Paris Agreement, but also fuel the economic activities across the value chain forming a powerful recovery mechanism to recuperate from the COVID-19 crisis.

That’s according to research from GlobalData, which says due to technological advancements, economies of scale and competitive auctions, the Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) for renewables has seen steep decline. For example, the LCOE of solar PV had witnessed a drop of 86% to reach 0.05USD/kWh in 2019 when compared with 2010. Likewise, for onshore wind the drop was 50.0% to 0.05USD/kWh.  

The declining LCOE has brought the renewable at par with fossils and in some countries even cheaper. This trend of cost competitiveness and innovation is likely to continue and could attract countries and investors to increase their renewable appetite. For instance, 2019 saw the highest solar power capacity additions and also the highest investment in the offshore wind segment. 

However, the planned investments in this sector until 2030 is lesser than the investments made in the last decade. The COVID-19 pandemic recovery stimulus provides an excellent window of opportunity for governments to channelize their investments in the renewables to offset the silos in the future investment schedule. These were earlier unable to reach the desired  2030 installations target decarbonizing the economy and putting forward a strong step towards climate sustainability. 

Somik Das, Senior Power Analyst at GlobalData, said: “ During the COVID-19 pandemic, renewable energy took the center stage. With declining electricity demand, utilities focussed on generating electricity from cost-effective renewable sources. By the end of 2030, the cumulative renewable installed capacity is estimated to be 3,600GW, about 1,900GW more than that of 2020, which is substantially lower than the required built-up of about 2,800-3,000GW for limiting the global temperature rise by 2c.  

“Incorporating higher investments in renewable energy might provide an opportunity to increase the investments and make up for the shortfall in the required installed power capacity by 2030. 

“Hence, increased investments in renewable energy in the recovery packages would benefit greatly and usher in a multitude of economic benefits. Not only it will provide a better opportunity in addressing climate change goals and global warming issues but also creates new jobs and stimulate economic activities.”  

Netherlands praised for green energy policies

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The 2020 Sustainable Energy Production (SDE+) plan in The Netherlands’ spring budget will make its CO2 reduction target feasible and affordable, say analysts at GlobalData.

The Dutch Government plans to double the green energy subsidies to €4bn in 2020, from a previously planned €2bn, to meet its promise to cut CO2 emissions.

The Dutch Climate Agreement aims to reduce CO2 emissions in the Netherlands by setting a national reduction goal of 49% lower in 2030 than in 1990. In December last year, the country’s Supreme Court ordered the government to cut the nation’s CO2 emissions by 25% from 1990 levels by the end of 2020.

One of the key policy measures to meet the climate goals is the SDE+ scheme, which provides financial support to the producers for the renewable energy they generate. The 2020 SDE+ spring tender round is the last time the SDE+ subsidy will be awarded in its current form. Later on, the SDE+ stimulation subsidy will be expanded to an incentive for sustainable energy transition (SDE++).

Bhavana Sri Pullagura, Power Analyst at GlobalData, said: “There are a large number of renewable energy projects that can offer cost-effective contribution for further development and make the energy transition more sustainable. The 2020 SDE+ will be used to help projects that have a short implementation period and those projects which did not get funding in the previous tender. This is expected to give an extra boost to the development of renewable energy through the stimulation of both new and old projects for which the required permits were previously missing.

“The government’s resolution to reduce emissions by 49% by 2030 will result in massive renewable energy capacity addition. By 2030, the renewable energy capacity is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12%. The subsidies provided by the government will help in bringing down the cost curve for wind and solar energy, making them the most promising areas of new capacity additions. Both these technologies are slated to grow by more than 15% CAGR by 2030.”

Image by Markus Christ from Pixabay 

UK power market hits consolidation as Brexit looms

960 640 Stuart O'Brien

A major change is underway in the UK power market, with increasing competition, regulatory headwinds, growth in renewables and investors’ uncertainty in Brexit all playing a part.

That’s according to research by GlobalData, which says a significant number of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) within the UK power sector has signalled a period of consolidation, along with over 10 electricity and natural gas suppliers folding their businesses within the last year.

GlobalData says the smaller scale suppliers are most at risk, with some exiting the market after they failed to hedge the risks properly, and others falling prey to big players through M&A.

“It is evident that companies will only be able to survive in this competitive market if they are able to achieve economies of scale,” said Ankit Mathur, Practice Head of Power at GlobalData. “The small players have provided an opening for large energy companies to diversify and enter the UK energy retail business.

“For example, Shell Energy debuted into the UK energy market after acquiring First Utility in 2017 and recently proposed to acquire Green Star Energy. This proposed transaction along with announcements of Octopus Energy acquiring Co-op Energy, and Ovo Energy slated to acquire SSE Energy’s retail business, marks the third such announcement in the last three months that indicates the UK retail market is under a consolidation phase.”

GlobalData says the UK’s Big Six energy suppliers (British Gas, EDF Energy, E.ON SE, npower, Scottish Power and SSE) have been badly bruised by the fierce competition from more than 60 smaller competitors offering cheaper and affordable prices.

According to Ofgem, the Big Six companies have lost around 1.3 million customers and are serving just above 70 per cent of the domestic customers. Their cumulative profits tanked by 10 per cent and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) fell by 35 per cent in 2018 as compared to 2017.

Mathur added: “The smaller companies in the next tier are boosting share; however, they are more prone to the risk, with some exiting the market. The new stringent entry requirements for new suppliers including tighter funding requirements, providing a customer service plan and passing a ‘fit and proper’ test may restrict new entry into the market.”

Renewables to represent 30% of US total installed capacity by 2030

960 640 Stuart O'Brien

The contribution of renewable power to total installed capacity in the US is expected to double from 15% in 2018 to 30% by 2030, reaching a total of 442.8 gigawatt (GW).

According to the latest numbers from GlobalData, that’s equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3%, attributed to more states adopting and updating renewable energy policies, as well as imposed emission taxes increasing the cost of fossil fuel power generation.

Energy utilities in the US are also in favour of switching to renewable power as they must comply with the state renewable energy targets. 

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘US Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2019 – Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape’, reveals that the share of coal-based capacity will decline from 27.2% in 2018 to 13.5% in 2030 as it is replaced by renewable energy, storage projects and stable gas-based generation in the near future. 

Arkapal Sil, Power Industry Analyst at GlobalData, said: “During 2019-2030, offshore wind capacity is set to see the largest growth rate among renewables reaching 11.7GW from 60 megawatt (MW) at a 62% CAGR, while solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is expected to reach 220GW from 75.3GW, growing at a 10% CAGR.”

The onshore wind segment, which registered a growth of 22% CAGR during 2000-2018 (reaching 96.3GW), will witness a steady growth of 5% CAGR over the forecast period to reach 185.5GW in 2030 and account for 12% of overall generation mix compared to 8% in 2018. 

Sil added: “Biopower, geothermal and solar thermal segments are expected to jointly grow at an average of 3% CAGR over the forecast period. Increased renewable capacity addition will open up new markets for wind turbines, modules for solar plants and associated equipment required for transmitting the generated power to the grid.”

Renewable capacity expansion will necessitate grid modernization in order to manage a high volume of renewable energy with inherent variability. This, in-turn, will involve huge investment in grid infrastructure and open up new markets for energy storage systems to enable a steady supply of power when adequate renewable energy is unavailable. GlobalData estimates that the battery storage market in the US is expected to reach around $5bn in 2030. 

Sil concluded: “The increased cost of nuclear power due to higher safety standards will result in a slight decline in the nuclear capacity during the forecast period. As a result, gas-based power will dominate the generation mix, accounting for 41% of installed capacity, and catering to the country’s base-load power requirement in 2030.”

Energy M&A activity hit $158bn in 2018

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Transaction volumes within the global power mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market remained strong through 2018, reaching US$158bn, the second highest in the last five years.

Deals registered in 2018 decreased slightly, from 651 to 622 in 2018.

The statistics, researched by leading data and analytics company GlobalData, found that out of the 622 transactions reported in 2018, 597 were acquisitions while the remaining 25 were mergers.

As of 2019 year-to-date (YTD), 244 M&A deals were witnessed. The largest announced M&A deal in the power industry in 2018 was the acquisition of Innogy by E.ON for US$52.9bn.

The report, ‘M&A in Power – Thematic Research’, also revealed that the solar energy segment registered the highest number of M&As during the period 2015–2019 YTD with 661 M&A deals, followed by T&D, wind, fossil fuels and hydropower segments, with 654, 461, 305 and 214 M&A deals, respectively.

The report highlights that over the past few years, the power industry has seen a transition towards sustainable clean energy. Power utility companies in mature markets are now witnessing a wave of consolidations, looking to create scale due to the shift towards renewable energy sources, which is pushing them to alter their business models.

The consolidation through acquisitions is driven mainly by few companies’ incapability to attain that organically and the acknowledgment that companies require collaboration or cooperation for this transition to occur.  

Sneha Susan Elias, Senior Power Analyst at GlobalData, said: “Power and utility companies are focusing on crucial climate goals and measures in the form of clean energy growth and enhanced natural gas-fired generation to deal with the intermittency issues, safety and security of energy supply, phase-out of coal-fired power plants and nuclear decommissioning. M&A deals involving renewable energy are expected to rise in future due to power and utility companies’ transition towards sustainable clean energy.

“Over the coming two to three years, M&A activity in the power industry is likely to remain strong, backed by a global urge to move away from thermal power towards renewables, although the former will remain relevant.”

Image by rawpixel from Pixabay

The energy storage market ‘paving the way for next energy revolution’

960 640 Stuart O'Brien

The energy storage market has caught the eye of a number of stakeholders involved in the power industry, leading to its considerable growth and opening the way for the next energy revolution.

So says GlobalData’s latest thematic report, Thematic Research: Energy Storage, which highlights the present scenario and emerging market trends across electrochemical, mechanical and thermal energy storage.

The report says demand for energy storage system (ESS) devices in the power sector is increasing rapidly, particularly after the increase in the renewable energy integration into the grids. Intermittent power supply led to demand for the storage of electrical energy and supply during peak load periods. ESS devices can help make renewable energy – whose power output cannot be controlled by grid operators – smooth and dispatchable.

With the global energy storage market becoming one of the rapidly growing segments within the renewable power mix, GlobalData says equipment manufacturers or technology providers of energy storage technologies are focused on innovating their energy storage solutions and offering advanced energy storage systems.

Sneha Susan Elias, Senior Analyst of Power at GlobalData, said: “Battery energy storage system (BESS) is regarded as a crucial solution for overcoming the intermittency limitations of renewable energy sources (RES). The battery energy storage market reported cumulative deployment of 4.9 GW at the end of 2018 and is expected to reach 22.2 GW in 2023, with the US accounting for 24.7% of the global capacity. The deployment is expected to grow, due to a large number of countries opting for storage utilization to support their power sector transformation.

“The expansion in battery manufacturing capacity and falling costs resulting from the electric vehicle (EV) industry are driving growth in energy storage services and new markets. This fall in battery prices has favored the battery energy storage market and has speeded the deployment of energy storage projects globally.

“Currently, lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries dominate the electrochemical energy storage market but other battery energy storage technologies such as sodium-sulfur (NaS), lead-acid and flow batteries are now getting deployed. While, thermal energy storage utilizing molten salt is among the most widely used technology in association with concentrated solar power (CSP) projects, among mechanical energy storage technologies, pumped hydroelectric storage systems is among the most mature energy storage technologies and offers a number of benefits such as energy-balancing, stability, storage capacity, along with ancillary grid services which include network frequency control and reserves.”

Image by Bert Braet from Pixabay

APAC shifting towards renewable energy auctions

960 640 Stuart O'Brien

Asia Pacific (APAC) countries are adopting several strategies and roadmaps to achieve the renewable energy targets designated by their governments.

Countries such as India, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Pakistan and Taiwan have implemented auctions to drive their renewable energy market, according to GlobalData. 

The company’s latest report ‘Asia Pacific Renewable Energy Policy Handbook 2019’ reveals that regulatory framework and policies of the APAC countries are aiming to achieve a strong growth in the renewable energy market.

Piyali Das, Power Analyst at GlobalData, said: “Auctions are the major mechanism in APAC driving the renewable energy sources in most of the key countries, with India being the most prominent in implementing auction plans to award 80 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 28 GW of wind projects between 2018 and 2020.”

Feed in tariffs (FiTs) play a role in enhancing the renewable energy market in APAC. In countries such as Australia and India, FiTs to renewable projects is a provincial or state subject.

Pakistan has been providing FiTs in renewable sources such as solar, wind and small hydro since 2015. Taiwan provides FiT for renewable systems and is subject to annual revision.

Piyali concluded: “The regulatory framework and policy structure, supporting renewable energy resources in various APAC countries, has led to significant development in the renewable energy market. China, India, Japan are some of the leading nations in renewable energy growth trajectories. In the wake of growing energy security and environmental concerns, most APAC countries are expected to strengthen their renewable energy mechanisms, which will help the Asia Pacific renewable energy industry to maintain growth in the coming years.”

Global battery energy storage market to grow to $13.13bn

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The global battery energy storage market will grow to $13.13bn by 2023, with Asia-Pacific (APAC) and EMEA the dominant markets.

The report from GlobalData reveals that a fall in technology prices and increasing pace of development in the power market are the primary driving factors for the growth.

APAC will continue to be the largest market reaching $6.05bn in 2023, as countries are increasing investments for improving their grid infrastructure and improving the market structure to attract foreign investments. With respect to technology, Lithium-ion is and will continue to be, the preferred technology for market deployment.

Bhavana Sri, Power Analyst forGlobalData, said: “The US has been the largest market for Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) both in terms of cumulative installed capacity and by market value for projects installed up to 2018 and is likely to continue to lead the market at the country level. The US market for battery energy storage is estimated to reach $2.96bn in 2023, accounting for 23% of the global market.”

Asia-Pacific was the largest market for battery energy storage systems and it accounted for 45% of the global market installed capacity in 2018 and the region is also expected to maintain its top position in the forecast period.

With the number of grid-connected renewable electricity generation plants increasing tremendously, countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines will focus on frequency regulation in the electric grid to normalise the variation in power generation from renewables.

The EMEA battery energy storage market registered a market value of approximately $1.73bn in 2018 and it accounted for 26% of the global market. The region has strong demand for flexibility, due to technological advancements, evolving market conditions, strong research facilities, and supportive policies. Middle East and Africa are small markets with demand for storage expected to increase once renewable power generation gains significant traction in the market.

The Americas battery energy storage market registered a market value of approximately $1.97bn in 2018 and it accounted for 28% in 2018. The battery energy storage market in the region is growing, with countries such as the US, Chile, Canada and Brazil promoting battery storage installations across consumer segments. Some US states have robust incentive programs, most notably California, which adopted an ambitious target for 1.3GW of energy storage by 2020, which it surpassed and a new target is awaiting approval.

Bhavana Sri concluded: “With countries aggressively promoting the modernisation of grids, and developing their capability to handle the demands of the present and future, batteries are being deployed to support smart grids, integrate renewables, create responsive electricity markets, provide ancillary services, and enhance both system resilience and energy self-sufficiency.“Market conditions are improving and more companies are moving into a decentralised generation, leading to an increase in the onsite deployment of renewables and batteries; as in with micro or mini girds. Supportive policies and high electricity charges are also nudging the market towards renewables and/or storage plus renewables at the end consumer level. As the power sector evolves to accommodate new technologies and adapt to varying market trends, energy storage will play a central role in the transition and transformation of the power sector.”