Global renewable refinery production capacity is forecast to triple by 2030 as demand for lower-carbon alternatives to conventional petroleum fuels accelerates, according to new research from GlobalData.
The company’s Strategic Intelligence: Alternative Fuels in Energy Transition report predicts that annual renewable refinery capacity will increase from approximately 11.7 billion gallons in 2025 to 35.4 billion gallons by the end of the decade.
The projected expansion reflects growing investment in alternative fuels, including renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), as governments and businesses seek to reduce emissions from transport activities that remain difficult to electrify.
For energy, estates and facilities managers, the findings highlight the potential role of alternative fuels in decarbonising existing vehicle fleets, logistics operations and other fuel-dependent activities without necessarily requiring wholesale infrastructure replacement.
GlobalData identifies biofuels as a particularly important near-term solution because certain products can be used within existing fuel systems with relatively limited modifications.
Renewable diesel, for example, can provide a lower-carbon alternative for compatible diesel-powered vehicles and equipment, offering organisations a potential route to reducing lifecycle emissions while maintaining operational flexibility.
Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, said transport remained a significant driver of petroleum demand, accounting for 46% of global petroleum product consumption in 2025, or 55% when international marine and aviation bunkers were included.
“As road vehicles, aircraft, and vessels cannot all transition away from liquid and gaseous fuels at the same pace, alternative fuels provide a practical route to lower emissions while maintaining fuel reliability, range, and operational flexibility,” he said.
Beyond biofuels, GlobalData expects low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and synthetic e-fuels to play an increasing role in sectors such as aviation and shipping over the longer term.
The report also highlights opportunities to convert existing petroleum refineries into facilities capable of processing renewable feedstocks, including waste oils, fats and vegetable oils.
However, expanding alternative fuel availability will require investment beyond production facilities, including feedstock supply, certification, distribution and supporting infrastructure.
For energy and facilities managers evaluating decarbonisation strategies, the projected growth could create additional procurement options for existing fuel-dependent operations.
Assessing fuel compatibility, lifecycle emissions, supply availability and cost will remain important when determining how alternative fuels fit alongside electrification and wider energy efficiency measures.
